A Romney Win, A Barr Place…and an Obama Show in California Tuesday.

“In horse racing terminology, a trifecta is a parimutuel bet in which the bettor must predict which horses will finish first, second, and third in exact order.”

I miss the horse races. I am not a gambler. I actually haven’t exchanged very much money on betting on anything in my lifetime. But had some fantastic times enjoying the atmosphere, fun, food, and strategy that was found at Ellis Park when I lived in Indiana.

I like to analyze and predict. It is fun. Dick Morris has been inspiring me for more than a decade to get past the polls and look for the true factors. I have been saying that if Obama ran from the left he would lose in a landslide since Jan 09. That was an easy pick. I know the far left’s solutions lower the standard of living for all and stagnate an economy. What I did not expect was he was going to pile on such ineptness. I did not expect he would so alienate everyone. I was not expecting for him to lose all but 57% of his own base in the W. Virginia Primary to a prisoner in Texas.  A federal inmate won 42 percent of the vote! That is a very powerful message. The flip in party excitement seals the deal. I still believe that Obama will receive less than 40% and will garner few states if any.

Because of the basic fact that an inmate with zero name recognition can leave Obama with less than 60%, I believe that on Tuesday, Rosanne Barr will come in second place in CA, passing Obama and giving us a trifecta that turns my state red and leaves Rosanne with some huge political capital.

First, my feelings about Rosanne Barr. I think she is vulgar. It is her right and freedom. It has always kept me from watching her as entertainment. I will say as a business woman, she has been successful. As to being intellectually honest, she is WYSIWYG. I totally disagree with her on almost every issue and all of her moral standards, but at least she tells you exactly what she believes. She stands on a far left platform and is not afraid to tell it like she sees it. I respect her for that. Cindy is the same. I think she is as wrong as wrong can be. But she stands up for what she believes. She had no problem turning on the current admin when it continued the same path as the one she had protested for 8 years. If I were as convicted to a far left set of beliefs as I am to my conservative beliefs, I would have no choice but to chose #BarrSheehan2012.

Now to the California voter. I say often on Conservatives Coast to Coast that CA has has an easier time passing conservative propositions and ballot initiatives than we do candidates. Prop 8 proves that. Look at the following map from WikiPedia with the breakdown of the vote:

File:CA2008Prop8-NoColor.svg

Now look at the Map of the 2008 Presidential election:

CA2008House.svg

See the difference? The real strength of the far left vote is seen in the Prop 8 map. But there is something else interesting about that same geographical chunk of voters. Many are very anti war. They do not like Hillary. She is way too hawkish. They gave Cindy Sheehan 16% against Pelosi. They are very principled. They are very convicted. They were not happy when we went into Libya and when we didn’t close Gitmo. They are mad about drone strikes. I could go on. But these are not just blind voters following party affiliation. They got behind Obama because they believed. He has been inept to their cause.

If there is really the reversal of intensity of voter turnout between parties that I feel to be true and that seems to be showing its head, that puts Romney close to being able to take the state. If this election repeats the pattern of 1980 and he gets less than Carters 41%, CA could very well end up red. It all depends on the swing in the intensity. As I am writing this blog, former congressman John Leboutillier from NY pops up on the Television and says this:

I firmly believe that it is very possible that enough of these voters, many of whom will not know she is on the ballot until they vote, to give Rosanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan 2nd Place and leave the defeated Obama a humiliating  Show. It all depends on how big that swing in passion is. All I know is the Silent Majority is no longer silent and that I have a huge new group of friends who have become political activists for the first time in their life within the last four years. I have been saying that the swing will equate directly to how far Obama pulls the pendulum to the left. From my vista, he gave it a huge pull. I believe when it swings back Tues it will be big. I have huge confidence in we the people. Maybe I’m Wrong! Hope not! But I do know if a convict can take almost half the vote with no name recognition, Rosanne can do it.

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