The only real poll that matters this far away from the actual primaries and caucuses it the positive intensity poll. This is the poll that considers name recognition. It basically levels the question of who is winning to if 100 people listened and gets to know the candidate, how many will pick them as their first choice.Herman Cain has been staying consistently at the top for months. Positive intensity cannot be bought with campaign cash, only name recognition. If the people do not like the message, it doesn’t matter how many people an advertisement or the grassroots can reach.
Herman Cain sits at 26% Positive intensity right now and has been in first place now for 18 weeks. Out of the 51% that know who Mr. Cain is, 26% pick him at their first choice. He was at 24% when his name recognition. was only 27%. Not only has Mr/ Cain raised his name recognition by 24 points in a few months, he has consistently continued to be in first place when it comes to positive intensity. The understood front runner,
Mitt Romney, has a 84% name recognition, garnered 20% positive intensity a few months ago, is down to 14%. The more people that get to know Mitt Romney, the lower positive intensity rating goes. Perry jumped up to the high 20’s for a week then has sunk back to 22 and I imagine the next poll will have him way lower. Ron Paul has in 12 years garnered 9% name recognition and has consistently stayed in mostly in single digits and is now at 6% positive intensity.
Herman Cain is the Front Runner just lacking some more name recognition.
“[T]his measure–a candidate’s polling adjusted for name recognition–has
a reasonably good track record. It would have identified winners like
Michael Dukakis and John Kerry relatively early in the process, as well
as Bill Clinton by the time he officially entered the race in November
1991.”(The Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously, Nate Silver, The New York Times)
|Math Says You Should Take Herman Cain Seriously
Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain once led a pizza empire but has never held office, making him the subject of a lot of snack food jokes but no serious coverage.
|The Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously
This morning’s Gallup poll – the first of Republican primary voters since Mitch Daniels and Mike Huckabee announced they wouldn’t run for president – is getting a lot of attention for the seemingly strong standing of Sarah Palin, who polls at 15 percent amid signals that she may enter the race.